The recent influx of large-scale transactions from XRP whales has put a damper on the optimism surrounding XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), causing ongoing selling pressure in the market. Initially, many believed that the approval of XRP ETFs would serve as a watershed moment, potentially sparking increased institutional interest and driving up the price of XRP. However, the latest data from on-chain analytics reveals a starkly different reality, indicating that the price dynamics have strayed far from this hopeful narrative.
According to insights from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, an intriguing trend is emerging among XRP whales—those individuals or entities holding substantial amounts of cryptocurrency. When examining the inflow statistics on the Binance exchange, it becomes evident that a significant portion of recent deposits falls into the 100,000 to 1 million XRP range, along with transactions surpassing 1 million XRP. These figures clearly show that we are not looking at small retail buyers; instead, these movements are indicative of major holders transferring large quantities of their assets onto exchanges, likely in preparation for selling.
The Binance Inflow-Value Band chart illustrates this trend vividly. The repeated spikes in inflows are predominantly driven by these higher-value transactions, while smaller transactions below 100,000 XRP remain relatively scarce. The chart distinctly highlights inflows categorized in purple (between 100,000 and 1 million XRP) and in light blue (over 1 million XRP). In fact, the majority of recent inflows into Binance are concentrated within these two categories, with only occasional smaller inflows appearing.
This situation creates an imbalance where the supply of XRP is being increased by these whales at a rate that smaller investors cannot keep up with, which explains why the anticipated positive impacts of ETF inflows on XRP's price have not materialized as expected.
Further analysis of the price action reflects a troubling trend: the cryptocurrency has experienced a series of lower highs and lower lows following significant deposit activity on exchanges. This pattern arises from a lack of new spot buyers entering the market on Binance; even moderate selling pressure is enough to suppress any upward momentum in prices. Currently, XRP encounters selling resistance around the $1.95 mark. Given the existing inflow patterns and market responses, the initial support zone lies between $1.82 and $1.87. If these large inflows continue, projections indicate that XRP's price may further decline, possibly reaching the range of $1.50 to $1.66.
The takeaway here is that while the trend towards ETFs was anticipated to generate sustained demand for XRP, the reality appears to be quite different. Whales, who had stockpiled XRP in anticipation of ETF approvals, seem to be seizing the moment to offload their holdings amid the resulting market attention.
Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that the inflows into Spot XRP ETFs have provided some measure of support against more severe price drops. Data from SoSoValue indicates that these funds saw approximately $82.04 million in inflows during the past week, suggesting that ETF interest might help mitigate potential declines.
