The world is at a pivotal moment, with the post-US era already taking shape. A recent development that highlights this shift is the massive EU-India trade deal, which promises to unite nearly 2 billion consumers and a quarter of the world's GDP. But what's even more intriguing is the context behind this deal and how it fits into the broader picture of a post-US world order. **
In 2007, when Steve Jobs unveiled the first iPhone, the sub-prime mortgage crisis was brewing in the US, and India was on the cusp of becoming a trillion-dollar economy. This was the year when trade talks between Delhi and Brussels were initiated for the first time. However, it wasn't until almost 20 years later that a deal was finally signed, after a few final months of accelerated negotiations. **
On Tuesday, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Council, António Costa, and India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, announced the "mother of all deals." This agreement opens parts of India's protectionist domestic market for European exports of manufacturing and services, while Indian middle-class consumers will find it cheaper to buy European cars and wine. The deal is much larger in scope, encompassing defense and security, commitments to multilateralism, mobility, and cooperation in various areas. **
But why the sudden change of pace after 20 years of stops and starts? The answer lies in Donald Trump. The EU-India free trade agreement emerges amidst relentless threats to territorial sovereignty, punitive tariffs, and the weakening of multilateral institutions. The original talks had proceeded slowly over differences on cars, alcohol, agriculture, and dairy and were abandoned in 2013. They were resumed in 2022 as the post-pandemic world sought to "de-risk" and diversify supply chains beyond China. Ironically, what brought the deal to the finish line was not China but the looming shadow of Trump. **
In December 2024, even before the inauguration of his second presidency, the US president had spooked Europe by reviving the idea of owning Greenland. This threat to territorial sovereignty prompted a widely shared sense of Europe being "home alone" amid frictions in the tightly woven transatlantic relations. To add to the chaos, on his first day in office, Trump imposed punishing tariffs on America's neighbors, Canada and Mexico, which culminated in the "liberation day" taxes levied on 90 countries worldwide. India was hit with one of the highest tariff rates of 50%, which included an additional 25% because of its purchase of discounted Russian oil. **
Now, "de-risking" and "decoupling" are back in vogue in Europe, but this time the target is Trump's America, rather than China. And what's at stake is not just supply chains but also the strategic capacity to act against coercion. The recent move by the French government to ban officials from using US video-conferencing software like Zoom and instead promote its home-grown Visio platform is a case in point. **
The wide scope of the evolving India-EU partnership suggests a move towards greater convergence in terms of the commitment to multilateral institutions and cooperation in various areas of security and defense, research, mobility, and connectivity, including enhanced engagement in the Indo-Pacific region. As the US withdraws to the western hemisphere, the Indo-Pacific region, which was once central to US engagement in Asia, is now more open to collaboration with the EU. **
The trade deal is the largest of its kind but is also part of a growing trend as many nations attempt to forge new alliances. Brussels recently concluded a trade deal with the South American Mercosur trade bloc, with several more in the pipeline; India has made agreements with the UK and New Zealand in the last few months alone. While ratification and implementation take time, and may even hit a roadblock or two, it suggests a shift that is unmistakable. The world that many outside the West have long dreamed about - of multipolarity, strategic autonomy, and even de-dollarization - is taking shape, first slowly and now rapidly. **
A day before the EU-India summit, EU leaders were for the first time guests of honor at India's Republic Day celebrations, invited to witness the military parade and colorful pageantry. The emerging pictures were a world removed from the gloom that has overtaken the European mood in recent months. They projected bonhomie, even optimism. **
The world is moving on. America first increasingly seems to be America alone. **
*Ravinder Kaur is a professor of Asian studies at the University of Copenhagen and is writing a book about the history of the global south.
