The Champions League is back, and for some of Europe's elite clubs, the road to glory starts earlier than expected. But is facing a play-off really the end of the world? Let’s dive into why this might not be the setback it seems—and why it could even be an opportunity in disguise.
This week marks the return of Europe’s premier competition, with 36 teams having already battled it out in the group stage. The top eight secured their spots in the last 16, while the bottom 12 were unceremoniously eliminated. But here’s where it gets interesting: teams finishing between ninth and 24th now face a two-legged knockout play-off, with the winners joining the elite in the next round. And this is the part most people miss—it’s not just about survival; it’s about momentum.
Among those returning to action are reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) and their 2025 final opponents, Inter Milan. Joining them are European heavyweights like Real Madrid, Juventus, Borussia Dortmund, and Benfica—all of whom finished outside the top eight. But no team qualified for the play-offs more dramatically than Jose Mourinho’s Benfica. With seconds left on the clock, goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scored in the eighth minute of stoppage time to secure a 4-2 win over Real Madrid, sending them through in the most thrilling fashion.
Speaking of Real Madrid, Alvaro Arbeloa’s side gets an immediate shot at redemption as they face Benfica again in the play-offs. Meanwhile, five of the six English entrants—Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Manchester City—secured top-eight finishes. The lone exception? Newcastle United, who now face Azerbaijani club Qarabag in the play-offs. But with Qarabag having been thrashed 6-0 by Liverpool in January, Newcastle will fancy their chances.
But here’s where it gets controversial: Does finishing outside the top eight and playing two extra matches doom your chances of Champions League glory? Not necessarily. Take PSG’s 2024-25 campaign as a prime example. After a shaky start, Luis Enrique’s side faced elimination on matchday seven, trailing Manchester City 2-0 at home. But they stormed back to win 4-2, then defeated Stuttgart 4-1 to secure a play-off spot. From there, they went on an unforgettable run, crushing Brest 10-0 on aggregate, beating Liverpool on penalties, and ultimately thrashing Inter Milan 5-0 in the final.
This season, PSG faces Monaco in the play-offs, and Enrique remains unfazed. “If any team is ready for the play-offs, it’s us,” he declared. “We knew this was a possibility, and we’re prepared to take the long route. I don’t think anyone can be considered favorites more than us.”
But is he right? Football data specialists Opta certainly think so, rating PSG’s chances of winning the Champions League higher than top-eight finishers like Tottenham and Sporting. Meanwhile, Newcastle and Inter Milan are given just a 3% chance of lifting the trophy—the same as Spurs. Arsenal, fresh off a perfect group stage, leads the pack with a 30% chance of becoming European champions for the first time.
Yet, as Liverpool learned last season, topping the group doesn’t guarantee success. After finishing first, they were eliminated by PSG in the last 16. Bayern Munich, Manchester City, and Liverpool follow with 14%, 10%, and 10% chances respectively, while Chelsea and Barcelona trail at 7%.
For English sides, the relief of avoiding the play-offs is palpable. Manchester City’s Pep Guardiola, whose team was eliminated in the play-offs last year, admitted, “We’re really pleased to skip one knockout stage. Hopefully, we can peak in March.” Arsenal’s Mikel Arteta echoed this sentiment, celebrating his team’s perfect group stage run: “We’re exactly where we wanted to be. Now, we can focus on other competitions.”
But what about those in the play-offs? Newcastle’s Eddie Howe admits he would have taken this scenario at the start of the competition. “We gave everything to finish in the top eight, but we’re pleased to still be fighting,” he said. Defender Dan Burn added a positive spin: “This is the first time Newcastle has reached the Champions League knockouts in its history—we’re incredibly proud.”
So, is facing a play-off really that bad? History suggests it’s not a death sentence—and for some, it might even be a launching pad. What do you think? Is the play-off a curse or an opportunity? Let us know in the comments!
